Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
